EV Sales Growth Forecasted in Connection with New Lower-Priced Options

by Deborah Grieb, Director of Marketing and Consumer Insights; Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst

Over half of new vehicle intenders who aren’t already intending to purchase an electric vehicle (EV) say they would consider purchasing one in the near future, according to AutoPacific’s most recent EV Consumer Insights Study. The finding is part of a large study designed to help the automotive industry navigate through the vast consumer sentiment regarding EVs. We know widespread adoption of EVs in the U.S. is a huge challenge. One of our goals with this study, and much of our syndicated study work, is to focus on the future and to understand the potential for turning EV rejectors into acceptors.”

With 58% of consumers who are in the market for a new vehicle within the next 3 years being willing to consider at EV, the challenge becomes finding an EV path for the remaining 42% who say they won’t consider an EV. The study confirms many known obstacles to EV adoption, including concerns about range, charge times and charger availability, to name a few, yet also sheds light on EV cost. 36% of EV rejectors say the cost of buying and/or operating at EV is too expensive. When asked a follow-up question regarding a price point that would change their mind and get them to consider an EV, nearly half of respondents (47%) indicated a price under $35,000 would change their mind. EVs are known to be expensive, luxury-type vehicles, so many consumers looking for a $25,000-$35,000 vehicle simply don’t even have one as an option.

Could New Lower-Priced EVs Help Propel Sales Growth?

According to our latest U.S. Sales Forecast, sales of EVs will reach 1.4 million units by the end of 2024, accounting for 9.1% of total light vehicle sales. Yet the real growth happens between 2026 and 2029 when EV sales are forecast to grow from 2.5 million units, 15% of total sales, to 4.1 million units, 25% of total sales. The next couple of years are likely to see moderate growth of EV sales in the U.S. as the infrastructure advances and consumer trust grows. Then, an influx of new, lower-priced EVs that fall into various segments will enter the market, vastly expanding consumer range and interest. Currently, the EV product mix in the U.S. market is lopsided towards luxury-priced EVs, and that needs to change for widespread EV adoption to take place.

While affordable EVs are necessary for continued EV adoption growth, it’s just as important for these models to possess the size, format, and features that American consumers want. EVs taking the format of subcompact five-door hatchbacks have already been proven unpopular with American shoppers. Appealing crossover SUV designs with enough size and space will be key to mainstream EV adoption.

AutoPacific has been forecasting U.S. light vehicle sales for over thirty years and is relied upon by auto manufacturers and suppliers worldwide. Average forecast accuracy over the last five years, measured from Q1 TLV annual forecast to actual TLV annual sales for the same year, is 95%, including the unexpected pandemic years.

Range and Charging Time Top Reasons Consumers Are Saying “No” to EVs

by Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst

Results of a recent online survey we issued indicate range and charge time issues are mostly to blame for deterring potential future electrified vehicle (EV) buyers. The study was issued to AutoPacific's proprietary panel of respondents who are licensed drivers ages 18 and older and reside in the U.S. Of the 827 survey respondents, 50% say they would consider an EV in the near future and 50% say they will not.

As a precursor to our comprehensive EV Rejector Study planned for release later in 2023, this smaller panel survey serves to test some initial hypotheses while the larger future study is being designed. It’s not a secret that those who refuse to purchase an EV are concerned about range and charging, but we now know more specifics about these deterring elements, like distance to charging station, availability of charging at work, dwelling style, etc. According to consumer responses, the top reason cited for not considering an EV in the future is “I would be worried about losing charge and being stranded,” followed by “I think the charge required to wait for an EV to charge is too long.”

Misperceptions and/or Lack of Charging Locations Deter Potential Buyers

Of respondents who will not consider an EV, 45% believe their home would require extensive and expensive upgrades in order to successfully charge an EV, compared to only 14% of EV acceptors. Additionally, only 6% of rejectors say either their employer offers a place to plug in or a public charging station is within close walking distance, compared to 30% of EV acceptors. At this point, consumers who can adopt an EV lifestyle most easily are the ones who are going to become EV owners. While there is a certain level of misunderstanding about at-home chargers, and there’s certainly a lack of public charging infrastructure, it will take a combination of education and availability to grow the EV acceptor population.

Electrified Vehicles Priced Under $35,000 Could Persuade Some Initial Rejectors

EV cost is also a deterrent, as 41% of respondents cited “buying and/or operating an EV is too expensive” as a reason for rejection. However, a combined 35% of those respondents say they would change their mind if an EV was priced below $35,000. Given the more affordably priced EV entries on the horizon, it’s nice to know there’s not only an existing market for a cheaper EV among EV acceptors, but that a lower price point could sway some initial rejectors to enter the market.

This finding highlights the importance of getting more affordable EVs into the marketplace as they will be crucially important in achieving federal and state-level goals for mass EV adoption. If mainstream middle-class consumers can’t afford them, EVs cannot become truly mainstream vehicles.

EV Intention is on the Rise, but What’s Driving It?

by Deborah Grieb, Director of Marketing and Consumer Insights

According to data from AutoPacific’s latest Fuel Price Impact Survey (FPIS), 9% of current vehicle owners intend to purchase an EV for their next vehicle, up from 4% just two years ago. The trend survey, issued bi-monthly to AutoPacific’s proprietary VehicleVoice member panel, captures responses from approximately 600 current vehicle owners each survey period.

After hovering around 4-5% for years, the jump in EV intention can likely be attributed to several factors, including more nameplates in the market, financial and driving incentives, environmental concerns, and desire for technology. When asked why they would choose an EV, 85% of respondents agreed with the statement an EV “is better for the environment,” while 80% agreed that EVs are “the way of the future.” It’s exciting to see consumers embrace the future potential for EVs and their place in the world of transportation. With over 120 EV nameplates expected to be on sale in the U.S. in the next 5 years, growing consumer interest is essential.” Can consumer demand grow enough to support 120 EVs?  

Source: AutoPacific Fuel Price Impact Survey April 2021

Fuel Prices Have Little to No Impact on EV Intention

AutoPacific data debunks one past theory surrounding interest - fuel prices. When fuel prices were at their highest, EVs were relatively unknown in the market and not a solution for escaping those high prices. Now that fuel prices have been stable for several years and manufacturers have made significant improvements in fuel economy, consumer choice of an EV can be based on reasons other than desire to save money on gasoline. According to our FPIS data, increases in EV intention are seemingly unrelated to fuel prices, even with recent fuel price increases and future price expectations. 

Source: AutoPacific Fuel Price Impact Survey Sept 2010-April 2021