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electric vehicle
According to AutoPacific’s latest U.S. Sales Forecast, sales of EVs will reach 1.4 million units by the end of 2024, accounting for 9.1% of total light vehicle sales. Yet the real growth happens between 2026 and 2029 when EV sales are forecast to grow from 2.5 million units, 15% of total sales, to 4.1 million units, 25% of total sales.
Electric vehicles (EVs) aren’t just for homeowners with convenient garage charging capability. Interest in acquiring an EV in the future is even greater from those living in multi-unit housing than those who own their own detached single-family home. According to data from AutoPacific, 70% of surveyed respondents who currently reside in a condo complex, and 67% of those who live in an apartment building, either intend to purchase, or will consider purchasing an EV in the near future, compared to 63% of those who own a single-family home.
Results of a recent online survey we issued indicate range and charge time issues are mostly to blame for deterring potential future electrified vehicle (EV) buyers. The study was issued to AutoPacific's proprietary panel of respondents who are licensed drivers ages 18 and older and reside in the U.S. Of the 827 survey respondents, 50% say they would consider an EV in the near future and 50% say they will not.
As a precursor to our comprehensive EV Rejector Study planned for release later in 2023, this smaller panel survey serves to test some initial hypotheses while the larger future study is being designed. It’s not a secret that those who refuse to purchase an EV are concerned about range and charging, but we now know more specifics about these deterring elements, like distance to charging station, availability of charging at work, dwelling style, etc. According to consumer responses, the top reason cited for not considering an EV in the future is “I would be worried about losing charge and being stranded,” followed by “I think the charge required to wait for an EV to charge is too long.”
Of respondents who will not consider an EV, 45% believe their home would require extensive and expensive upgrades in order to successfully charge an EV, compared to only 14% of EV acceptors. Additionally, only 6% of rejectors say either their employer offers a place to plug in or a public charging station is within close walking distance, compared to 30% of EV acceptors. At this point, consumers who can adopt an EV lifestyle most easily are the ones who are going to become EV owners. While there is a certain level of misunderstanding about at-home chargers, and there’s certainly a lack of public charging infrastructure, it will take a combination of education and availability to grow the EV acceptor population.
EV cost is also a deterrent, as 41% of respondents cited “buying and/or operating an EV is too expensive” as a reason for rejection. However, a combined 35% of those respondents say they would change their mind if an EV was priced below $35,000. Given the more affordably priced EV entries on the horizon, it’s nice to know there’s not only an existing market for a cheaper EV among EV acceptors, but that a lower price point could sway some initial rejectors to enter the market.
This finding highlights the importance of getting more affordable EVs into the marketplace as they will be crucially important in achieving federal and state-level goals for mass EV adoption. If mainstream middle-class consumers can’t afford them, EVs cannot become truly mainstream vehicles.
According to data from AutoPacific’s latest Fuel Price Impact Survey (FPIS), 9% of current vehicle owners intend to purchase an EV for their next vehicle, up from 4% just two years ago. The trend survey, issued bi-monthly to AutoPacific’s proprietary VehicleVoice member panel, captures responses from approximately 600 current vehicle owners each survey period.
After hovering around 4-5% for years, the jump in EV intention can likely be attributed to several factors, including more nameplates in the market, financial and driving incentives, environmental concerns, and desire for technology. When asked why they would choose an EV, 85% of respondents agreed with the statement an EV “is better for the environment,” while 80% agreed that EVs are “the way of the future.” It’s exciting to see consumers embrace the future potential for EVs and their place in the world of transportation. With over 120 EV nameplates expected to be on sale in the U.S. in the next 5 years, growing consumer interest is essential.” Can consumer demand grow enough to support 120 EVs?
Source: AutoPacific Fuel Price Impact Survey April 2021
AutoPacific data debunks one past theory surrounding interest - fuel prices. When fuel prices were at their highest, EVs were relatively unknown in the market and not a solution for escaping those high prices. Now that fuel prices have been stable for several years and manufacturers have made significant improvements in fuel economy, consumer choice of an EV can be based on reasons other than desire to save money on gasoline. According to our FPIS data, increases in EV intention are seemingly unrelated to fuel prices, even with recent fuel price increases and future price expectations.
Source: AutoPacific Fuel Price Impact Survey Sept 2010-April 2021
