Consumers Aren't Comfortable with Fully Autonomous Vehicle Technology; Want Proven Track Record

by Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst

Fully autonomous vehicles are coming, but are drivers ready and willing to hand over the controls? In a recent study of over 600 licensed drivers aged 18-80 in the United States, AutoPacific gauged comfort with autonomous vehicles and investigated such topics as insurance responsibility, accident liability, price willing to pay and trusted automotive brands.

Rating their current comfort level, only 29% of respondents said they would be comfortable being automatically driven in their own fully autonomous vehicle in the future. A slightly lower 26% of respondents would be comfortable as passengers riding in someone else’s fully autonomous vehicle.

This is technology that most consumers are going to need to see and experience for several years before becoming comfortable. It’s different than any other automotive technology that’s currently out there in that you’d be truly putting your vehicle in control of the drive one hundred percent. Study results show that the large majority of respondents will wait until there’s a proven track record of reliability before embracing the technology.

Rating their current comfort level, only 29% of respondents said they would be comfortable being automatically driven in their own fully autonomous vehicle in the future. A slightly lower 26% of respondents would be comfortable as passengers riding in someone else’s fully-autonomous vehicle in the future.

Younger Drivers Are Most Comfortable with Autonomy

Age will play a major role in the future acceptance and adoption of autonomous vehicles as younger consumers are currently more comfortable with the technology. When asked about their comfort level being driven in their own fully autonomous vehicle, 40% of respondents aged 18-29 say they would be comfortable, while only 18% of drivers 60 and older say the same. Furthermore, 47% of respondents aged 18-29 say they would be comfortable with a fully autonomous vehicle taking its own evasive actions in emergency situations, compared to only 29% of slightly older respondents (age 30-39) and 20% of the oldest age group (age 60+). When asked if they believe there will be more or fewer accidents when fully autonomous vehicles are on the road, only 24% of respondents overall believe there will be fewer, compared to 41% of respondents aged 18-29.

When asked about their comfort level being driven in their own fully autonomous vehicle, 40% of respondents aged 18-29 say they would be comfortable, while only 18% of drivers 60 and older say the same.

Tesla, BMW and Toyota Most Trusted Brands for Autonomous Vehicle Development

Nearly a third of all respondents (32%) say they trust Tesla to develop a safe and reliable fully autonomous vehicle, followed by Toyota (19%) and BMW (18%). Tesla’s reputation as a technology leader and the fact that its vehicles currently offer some degree of autonomous technologies, whether they reliably work or not, gives them the competitive edge with consumers when it comes to future full autonomy.

Toyota’s strong brand reputation with older consumers and its reputation for robustness and reliability likely help it place in the top 3 overall, though respondents aged 18-29 are less likely to name the brand as a contender in autonomous development and more likely to choose Apple (20%), even though the technology giant doesn’t currently sell vehicles.

U.S. EV Sales Forecasted to Reach Around 700,000 Amidst Increasing Consumer Demand

by Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst

AutoPacific has just issued its forecast of fully electric light vehicle sales in the U.S. of around 700,000 units in 2022 with strong annual increases throughout the 6-year forecast period. Our forecast comes as consumer demand for EVs is also at its highest yet, having spiked significantly in the past two years.

We’ve recently asked vehicle owners what powertrain they intend to purchase when replacing their current vehicle. The question is part of a series of questions asked in our latest AutoPacific’s Fuel Price Impact Study (FPIS), a bi-monthly study of over 500 vehicle owners in the U.S. While hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and electric (EV) vehicles have all been trending upward, it is EV intention that has increased the most in recent years. The market is seeing exponential growth in the number of EV nameplates available to consumers, making EVs more visible to vehicle shoppers and in turn increasing their consideration for them. We believe growth in EV demand is a combination of several factors including increased awareness of EVs, increased variety of vehicle brands and nameplates, types and price ranges available, improved charging infrastructure, increased range, and environmental-friendliness.

Consumer intent to purchase an EV jumped from 4% to 9% in 2020, reaching 11% in January 2022.

New Product Plays a Greater Role in Growing EV Demand Than Fuel Prices

From 2010 through 2014, when the average fuel price paid was highest since we began tracking it, consumer demand for EV powertrains was stuck between 2% to 4% - more a function of a lack of product availability and consumer awareness than high fuel prices. As Tesla started introducing additional models in the mid-2010s, consumer demand increased slightly, yet remained stagnant throughout the decade. It wasn’t until 2020 that consumers began to show significantly greater intent for purchasing an EV, perfectly aligned with the growth in nameplate count starting with Tesla’s Model Y (now the top selling EV) and quickly followed by new entries like the Ford Mustang Mach-E and the Volkswagen ID.4.

In fact, steadily rising fuel prices since early last year seem to have impacted demand less than the influx of new product, as evidenced by periodic drops in demand despite rising fuel prices. Over the same time period, demand for hybrids remains higher than that of EVs, as they enable much better fuel economy than gasoline-only powertrains while allowing owners to fill up at the gas pump as they always have.

Still, we can’t deny that fuel prices play a role in EV demand. In fact, 83% of EV intenders say they would choose an EV because “charging is cheaper than fueling.

AutoPacific forecasts U.S. EV sales of 670,000 in 2022 as consumer demand reaches 11%. EV sales are expected to reach 2.5 million units by the end of 2027.

75% of Consumers See EVs as the “Way of the Future”, But the Road to the Future Will be a Challenging One

Since March of 2021, when AutoPacific began asking EV intenders why they would choose an EV, the top three reasons have consistently been “charging is cheaper than fueling,” “an EV is better for the environment,” and “EVs are the way of the future.” Consumers also like the convenience of charging and the quietness of an EV. EVs are establishing their place in the market by providing consumers with more than just efficiency compared to traditional internal combustion vehicles.

While EV demand is growing, there remains much work to be done as about 89% of AutoPacific’s respondents still indicate they intend to buy something other than an EV for their next vehicle. Conquesting consumers out of gasoline, diesel, and hybrid vehicles – none of which require changes in daily routine to accommodate charging – will continue to be an uphill challenge for years to come.

Consumers Expect Fuel Prices to Increase, but Won't Change the Type of Vehicle They Plan to Purchase

by Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst

Today’s rising fuel prices won’t change the type of vehicle most consumers plan to purchase. We’ve been studying the impact of fuel prices on consumer vehicle purchase behavior bi-monthly since 2005.

In AutoPacific’s most recent January 2022 Fuel Price Impact Study, 65% of respondents said they expect fuel prices to increase in the near future, yet only 23% of respondents said higher fuel prices would cause them to change the type of vehicle they would purchase if purchasing today. This is up from 15% in August 2020, when fuel prices were lower than today, yet down from a high of 33% in 2012. Technology has enabled the fuel economy of vehicles of all types to improve enough over the past decade that consumers are no longer forced from SUVs to passenger cars because of high fuel prices as they were in 2008, or even 2012.

Despite expectations of rising fuel prices, the majority of vehicle owners won't let it change the type of vehicle they plan to purchase in the future.

Owning an SUV or Truck is No Longer a Major Penalty When it Comes to the Fuel Pump

In March 2012, average fuel prices reported by panel members in the U.S. were the highest seen in the last decade, averaging $3.87 per gallon. At that time, 33% of respondents said they would change the type of vehicle they would purchase due to higher fuel prices. Also at that time, the mix of new car and light truck purchases was about 50/50 and light truck fuel economy was lower than today, forcing many vehicle owners into smaller or more fuel-efficient vehicles such as mid-size or compact sedans.

Jump 10 years to 2022 and the mix of new car and light truck purchases is heavily weighted to light trucks, accounting for approximately 77% of the market. Despite the much higher light truck mix, vehicle owners reported getting an average of 24 mpg whether in 2012, when light trucks represented just 50% of the market, or today. This gives consumers little incentive to abandon light trucks such as SUVs and pickups for passenger cars. Thanks to impressive improvements in efficiency, today’s consumers enjoy a similar level of fuel economy as they did ten years ago even though they are much more likely to be driving light truck products today. This is a major factor behind why SUVs are here to stay; they simply don’t require a big sacrifice at the pump in the way that they used to.

Although fuel prices have comparatively little impact on vehicle type chosen, fuel economy is still important. 49% of respondents in January 2022 agreed with the statement, “the better the fuel economy, the more likely I am to buy a specific vehicle.”

Consumers Can Still be Swayed by Fuel Economy When Shopping for a Vehicle

Although fuel prices have comparatively little impact on vehicle type chosen, fuel economy is still important. 49% of respondents in January 2022 agreed with the statement, “the better the fuel economy, the more likely I am to buy a specific vehicle.” While fuel economy may drive consumers in a specific vehicle type or powertrain direction, once the considerations have been narrowed, consumers are unlikely to be swayed from one vehicle to another by fuel economy. 58% of respondents say it takes an improvement of 5 or more miles per gallon to prefer one comparable vehicle over another.

Light Vehicle Sales Predicted to Increase to 16.2 Million Units in 2022

by Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst

Our recently released forecast of U.S. light vehicle sales predicts 2022 will reach a total of 16.2 million vehicles sold. This is up from the 15.1 million units actually sold in 2021 during the second year of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that continues to cause havoc on the global supply chain and results in drastically short supplies of new vehicles available to consumers

Moving forward into a new year, we expect over a 1 million unit increase over 2021, as chip supply gradually returns and new vehicle inventory starts to fill up again, especially during the second half of 2022. Consumers have money to spend on new vehicles, but with such low supply last year and the start of this year, there is pent-up demand. 2023 will see a return to 17+ million unit volumes, followed by a mild cooling off period over the next couple of years as pent-up demand gets filled, though volumes are expected to stay above 17 million units.

Times are Changing as Consumer Demand for Certain Vehicle Features Shifts

by Deborah Grieb, Director of Marketing and Consumer Insights

AutoPacific’s latest Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS) has indicated a sharp growing interest in certain vehicle features while others have fallen on the wayside. This year, 88,998 new vehicle acquires were surveyed via AutoPacific’s 2021 New Vehicle Satisfaction Survey (NVSS) to determine what features today are hot, and which ones are not. 2020 was a turbulent year for many consumers, a time shaken by the onset of a global pandemic and its still-lingering side effects. The auto industry itself wasn’t immune to the chaos. Health concerns rose while consumer confidence plummeted as lockdowns began. Dealerships saw drastically fewer (if any) foot traffic and vehicle assembly plants went dark. But people were still buying and selling cars albeit at far less of a rate than in 2019 and through different mediums this time around like Carvana, Vroom, along with local dealerships and automakers trying various at-home services like contactless test drives.

Amidst this shift in consumer behavior, priorities, and preferences, we’ve seen four features in our 2021 FADS climb their way into the top ten list from out of the lower ranks including front and rear parking sensors, Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, ventilated/cooled front seats, and LED front exterior accent lighting.

In looking over the list of the top ten most demanded features, heated front seats remains the number one item on consumer wish lists with 66% wanting this on their next new vehicle followed by blind-spot information system (commonly referred to as blind spot monitoring) at number 2 with 60% demand.

Notably, of all ten driver assistance features or ADAS surveyed in the 2021 FADS, demand is the highest for blind-spot information systems, followed by lane departure warning at number five. Consumer demand for other key ADAS systems is noticeably lower like active lane keeping assist (45%), forward automatic emergency braking (41%), and rear cross-traffic alert (38%). This difference may be attributed to the lack of consumer awareness of the benefits of these systems. For example, systems like blind spot monitoring and lane departure warning are often activated much more frequently than systems like forward automatic emergency braking.

“When consumers hear about a vehicle’s ability to stop itself automatically, they are often wary.  When they experience it saving them from committing a driving error, they clearly see the benefit,” says Dan Hall, Vice President of AutoPacific.

As automakers continue to roll out many of these ADAS systems as standard-issue on their products or bundle them together in further options packages, and more consumers learn how crucial these pieces of life-saving tech are, AutoPacific predicts demand will rise.

LED front exterior accent lighting skyrocketed to the number eight most demanded feature for 2021

Two of the hottest features most in demand by new vehicle shoppers this year include Apple CarPlay/Android Auto and LED front exterior accent lighting. The latter jumped 26 spots to the number eight on our top ten list for 2021, likely a result of more and more mainstream vehicles bypassing traditional, simple headlamps and front fascias for more intricate, flashy LED accents adorning the headlights, grille, and even by way of illuminated front emblems like Mercedes-Benz’s glowing star. Once the mark of luxury brands only, LED exterior lighting is enhancing the designs of vheiles in every segment and price point.  In addition to being a design enhancement, LEDs help visibility and have a long life.

Another feature we expect to continue to grow in demand like wildfire, is Apple CarPlay/Android Auto. This popular infotainment feature is found on nearly every new vehicle on sale today, oftentimes as standard-issue, and serves as a great way for drivers and passengers to link their smartphone to the vehicle’s infotainment system to project things like navigation, messages, and music or podcast streaming. Younger shoppers including millennials and tech-savvy Gen X individuals, will only fuel the surge in demand as more and more consumers realize the future is in tethering a smartphone directly to the vehicle.

Survey respondents are individuals who purchased their new vehicle outright, financed it, or leased it and who have completed the survey section regarding their next vehicle. The FADS study closely analyzes the characteristics consumers prefer in their next vehicle and gauges demand for over 100 specific features.

EV Intention is on the Rise, but What’s Driving It?

by Deborah Grieb, Director of Marketing and Consumer Insights

According to data from AutoPacific’s latest Fuel Price Impact Survey (FPIS), 9% of current vehicle owners intend to purchase an EV for their next vehicle, up from 4% just two years ago. The trend survey, issued bi-monthly to AutoPacific’s proprietary VehicleVoice member panel, captures responses from approximately 600 current vehicle owners each survey period.

After hovering around 4-5% for years, the jump in EV intention can likely be attributed to several factors, including more nameplates in the market, financial and driving incentives, environmental concerns, and desire for technology. When asked why they would choose an EV, 85% of respondents agreed with the statement an EV “is better for the environment,” while 80% agreed that EVs are “the way of the future.” It’s exciting to see consumers embrace the future potential for EVs and their place in the world of transportation. With over 120 EV nameplates expected to be on sale in the U.S. in the next 5 years, growing consumer interest is essential.” Can consumer demand grow enough to support 120 EVs?  

Source: AutoPacific Fuel Price Impact Survey April 2021

Fuel Prices Have Little to No Impact on EV Intention

AutoPacific data debunks one past theory surrounding interest - fuel prices. When fuel prices were at their highest, EVs were relatively unknown in the market and not a solution for escaping those high prices. Now that fuel prices have been stable for several years and manufacturers have made significant improvements in fuel economy, consumer choice of an EV can be based on reasons other than desire to save money on gasoline. According to our FPIS data, increases in EV intention are seemingly unrelated to fuel prices, even with recent fuel price increases and future price expectations. 

Source: AutoPacific Fuel Price Impact Survey Sept 2010-April 2021